Why sports media members still hate analytics
Also, a reintroduction to The Other 51
Lately, I’ve been consciously reminding myself that it’s 2022.
Stay with me.
When I look back at, say, the research I did on my dissertation, I have to actively remind myself that that is nearly 10 years old now. The digital and social media that were still so new back then are now just a part of the world.
The point is that a lot of the things I instinctively think of as new or developing are, in fact, old and established.
One of those is the analytics movement in sports.
Moneyball, the book that brought a lot of these ideas to a mainstream audience, and Football Outsiders, the website that developed a lot of the advanced metrics for the NFL like DVOA, both turn 20 years old next year.
I mention this because one of the weirdest but also interesting stories this NFL season has been media critiques of coaches using analytics to make in-game decisions. Kick or go for it? Take the points or go for more? Go for two?
Part of this is The Take Division of the Sports-Media Industrial Complex, in which media are incentivized to express strong opinions on anything and everything. You will never convince me that that many people feel that strongly about a Chargers-Browns game in Week 5.
Part of it is a continued misunderstanding of the term “analytics” which has become a catch-all term for using any stat that wasn’t on the back of a trading card in 1987. Check out this excellent podcast between Pablo Torre and Bill Barnwell about defining the term and how this information is used. (A really fun fact from that podcast is that the Surface tablets that players and coaches use on the sidelines do not have internet access. Which means we at home have access to more information than the coaches and players do.)
But part of it is captured by this newsletters favorite Get-Off-My-Lawn Media Member:
Joe Posnanski got me thinking about this topic the other day.
I realize now that the real argument I have with people about the intentional walk is the argument itself.
They want to argue STRATEGY. And I want to argue ESSENCE. Sure, I think a huge percentage of the time the intentional walk is a terrible strategy, but I don’t care about that. What I care about is that the intentional walk is a fundamentally corrupting force in the game. It takes an exciting situation and makes it boring. It takes away key at-bats from the best and most thrilling players in the game. It robs us of joy.
And yet, people constantly defend it, constantly make spurious comparisons to annoying strategies in other sports, and I’ve lost my mind over this countless times, but Derek has opened my eyes to what the real disagreement is here.
The real disagreement is that they think baseball is about winning and losing.
And I don’t. I think baseball is about entertaining millions of people.
King Kaufman made this point on Twitter the other night:
Seriously. What’s better than a team going for it on fourth down? Especially a kinda crazy fourth down early in the game? What’s more fun than a two-point conversion? Going for a touchdown on fourth and goal is fun. Kicking a 22-yard field goal is boring.
Nobody wants to see a game of punts.
I think Mina Kimes made this point, but in essence, in football analytics rewards aggressiveness. Aggressiveness is fun to watch. We don’t want a throwback to the 1970s football (seriously, the halftime score of Super Bowl IX was 2-0. Halftime. OF THE SUPER BOWL).
So why do the Wilbons of the media world react so viscerally to it?
Here’s my guess: It’s because the actions drive by analytics goes against how sports are supposed to look. When you have fourth down, you punt. When you have a short field goal, you take the points. Shortstop and second basemen play at certain spots on the field. Football is on at 1 p.m. and 4 p.m. on Sundays. Sports, in many ways, brings us comfort because of its connection to memories and because of its consistency.
So next time you hear someone decry “analytics,” in football after the Ravens go for a touchdown instead of a short field goal (or whatever), imagine they’re really saying “Sports used to look a certain way, and now it looks different, and I don’t like the change because it takes me out of the comfort zone that sports provides me.”
Remember. It’s 2022. Things have changed. That’s not always a bad thing.
The Other 51
Since a lot of you are new subscribers (thank you and welcome!), I wanted to take a second to introduce you to my podcast, The Other 51.
What’s The Other 51? Short answer is that it’s a podcast that gets your favorite writers to spill their secrets.
The less short answer: I talk to writers (novelists, journalists, musicians—anybody who strings words together) about process, projects, advice, wherever the conversation goes. Informal, more like a conversation over a drink or over ice cream.
Yes, it’s a Hamilton reference.
I’ve been hosting this since 2016, and it’s one of the most fun things I do. It’s a labor of love, and I would love it if you checked it out.
Here are the three most recent episodes:
Episode 166: Saving Football with Tyler Dunne
In our first-ever live event, Tyler Dunne returns to talk about his new book, “The Blood and Guts: How Tight Ends Save Football.”
Listen to this episode for your chance to WIN A SIGNED COPY OF TY’S BOOK.
Tyler tells Brian why he decided to write a whole book about tight ends. Tyler tells Brian how he approached writing the book like a series of long-form feature stories, how he balanced that and theme to turn those stories into a book, and how he balanced writing and reporting the book, running his own subscription newsletter AND raising a newborn and a toddler at the same time.
The episode was recorded on October 27, 2022, at the Jandoli School of Communication at St. Bonaventure. Thanks to Aaron Chimbel, the staff of the Jandoli School, and the Endowment for Excellence in Business Journalism for their support of the event.
Episode 165: Walking Through Your Fear with Jeff Pearlman
Jeff Pearlman is back for either his 83rd or 905th appearance, depending on who’s counting. Jeff is back to chat about “The Last Folk Hero,” his outstanding new biography of Bo Jackson that is out this week.
Jeff did 720 interviews for this book, and he tells Brian who he wishes had been 721. Jeff walks through how he organized all this information with printouts and folders — “It’s a frickin’ nightmare.”
Jeff talks about what makes Bo’s story so intriguing as a writer, how he separated fact from myth, and if it was a bummer to learn the truth behind those myths. He discusses how he developed his writing style, the importance of making the extra call, and how you never stop being afraid but you learn to do what you have to do.
Alternate episode title: Life’s a Crapper
Episode 164: A 70-Word Sentence with Dr. Denny Wilkins
Denny Wilkins' story is that of a geology major from Massachusetts turned into a journalism professor at St. Bonaventure. It's also the story of a professor who taught a generation of St. Bonaventure journalism graduates — Brian included — to omit needless words.
Denny and Brian, now colleagues at the Jandoli School of Communication, bring faculty meeting energy to this week's episode. Denny discusses the challenges of teaching college students how to write, the importance of curiosity, and how he teaches it. Denny talks about his own journalism experiences, why he views himself as a coach, and what he learned from former St. Bonaventure women's basketball coach (and current coach at Providence) Jim Crowley about teaching.
Can you make each sentence one word shorter? If so, you're halfway to a better story.
Yep. He also talks about what Brian was like as a student. I immediately regret this decision.
You can subscribe to The Other 51 at the links here: